The “Red is Due” Myth: Why Past Spins Don’t Predict Future Wins

There are many myths associated with gambling, lucky feelings, and other superstitions that many will tell you are hidden clues to how a game round might play out.
In fact, the most dangerous phrase in gambling is arguably “It hasn’t hit black in a while, so it must be due” or indeed words to that effect.

You’ve likely heard it yourself at the tables, or maybe even thought it. “The odds are shifting.” “It’s gonna hit any second now.” It’s seductive logic fuelled by what feels like common sense.

But the truth tells another story. And that is past spins have absolutely no influence on future spins, and the belief that they can help guide you in games of pure chance is entirely unfounded.

Known as the Gambler’s Fallacy, this flawed logic costs players millions of pounds in real money every year. It is a quirk of human psychology that even the greatest mathematical minds have fallen victim to.

In this article, we look at how the maths doesn’t add up to help you understand why it’s a fallacy, and see that accepting the true odds of online roulette games will help to improve your game.

The Monte Carlo Horror Story

To help illustrate the point, we turn to the Monte Carlo Horror Story of 1913, an event that has since lent its name to this very concept.

It’s August 1913 at the Casino de Monte Carlo, and a crowd is forming around roulette table 28, as the unthinkable is playing out before their very eyes. Each spin of the wheel keeps producing the same result: black.

By the time it reaches the 20th black in a row, the bets on red are building up, but the table holds out for a further six spins before finally caving, giving a total of 26 black numbers in a row. Such an occurrence has odds of approximately one in 66 million.

What made this story go down in history is not the high improbability of the table producing 26 consecutive black numbers. It’s that players kept on playing with increasingly larger bets, so convinced that the next red was just around the corner. Some gambled everything they had on it, as they were so sure that mathematically, the table must deliver that elusive red.

By the time the streak broke, players had lost 1.5 million francs, which is nearly £10 million in today’s money. The casino didn’t have to do anything to achieve this result; it simply allowed probability to run its course. Such is the power of human psychology.

Independent Events Explained

Now, let’s look at the maths: at what is actually happening when that roulette wheel spins. It’s mechanical, or in the case of video roulette, randomly determined with RNG technology. The wheel has no memory or controls working in the background, balancing the outcomes. There’s no rhyme or reason, no thought behind the outcome. Every wheel spin is random.

Every single spin of the wheel is what mathematicians would call an independent event. It means the outcome of one spin has absolutely no impact on the result of the next.

Each new spin is entirely independent of the previous. It means that the probability of the ball landing on any number is the same on the first spin as it is on the thousandth.

If we look at a European Roulette wheel, there are 37 possible outcomes: the ball could land anywhere on numbers 0 through 36. Of these numbers, 18 are red, 18 are black, and one is green (the zero).

This means you have an 18/37 chance of hitting red, an 18/37 chance of hitting black, and a 1/37 chance of hitting zero. As the wheel remains the same for each spin, these odds are consistent for each spin. And therefore, the probability of hitting red, black, or green is the same on every spin.

The same applies to an American roulette wheel. The odds differ from those of the European wheel due to the inclusion of the double zero pocket, which creates 38 possible outcomes. However, the odds for each number hitting on American wheels remain consistent between spins.

The key is to remember that the wheel is a mechanical device. It performs in the same manner on each spin. It has no memory for what has happened previously, nor a desire for what’s to come. It simply exists, doing its thing, churning out numbers at random.

Why JeffBet Shows the “History Board”

Okay, so if past spins have no impact on future spins, why do we have a history board? We hear you ask. The answer is simple enough: humans love patterns.

Our brains are pattern-recognition machines; it’s the way we evolved. Back when our ancestors were hunting on the Savannah, the ability to spot patterns was the difference between staying alive and having an untimely encounter with a predator. Recognising edible plants kept starvation at bay, and the markings of poisonous plants kept us alive.

So, displaying the last 500 game outcomes on our Lightning Roulette tables is simply about the fun of it. About the pleasure we get from patterns, even if we know they’re just there for the visual stimulation and don’t actually have meaning beyond tickling that evolutionary marvel.

People like seeing the data, and we like giving our players the best experience possible when they’re playing JeffBet’s games.

Just remember when you are looking at those stats, not to think “oh it’s time for another red to hit after this streak of blacks” and instead think “isn’t it interesting that this streak of black has lasted so long” then proceed to play your lucky numbers or get back to your betting strategy.

Abolish the Myth, Embrace the Game

The ‘it’s due’ myth persists because it feels right and sounds reasonable, despite its flawed logic. It appeals to our sense of balance and fairness. But in truth, roulette isn’t fair in the way that we want it to be. Not all numbers get their ‘chance’ to be the winner in every gaming session.

The important thing is that roulette is fair in the way that it needs to be, in the way that matters: that every spin has the same probability, regardless of what’s come before. It’s what makes roulette exciting, fun, and fair to play.

When you play roulette with this understanding, something shifts inside. You’re not chasing a pattern that doesn’t exist. You’re not trying to beat mathematics or defy logic. You’re playing a game of chance with the odds clearly in front of you, making informed decisions with your eyes open.

This is as it should be. It’s when gambling becomes the most fun, because you’re playing responsibly, and without the false hope that the wheel owes you something.

Ready to experience the thrill for yourself? Sign up for a JeffBet account today and watch the wheel live on our real dealer roulette tables.